Reflections on UFOs, skepticism, and practically anything else by Robert Sheaffer, author of the book "Bad UFOs," plus the "Psychic Vibrations" column in The Skeptical Inquirer).
With the earth now scheduled to end twice in the near future, once on May 21 of this year, and again on December 21 of 2012, let us look at at some of the previous times that the world ended. We will turn to the Zetas and the great Pole Shift that was going to be caused by a supposed "Planet X" in May of 2003.
Nancy Lieder
The "Zetas" are a supposed alien race whose messages are allegedly channeled by one Nancy Lieder of Wisconsin, seen here. (Usually she just goes by her first name). She began posting on the internet her messages from the Zetas in 1995, and soon acquired a considerable following among New Age, UFO, and Conspiracy believers. When the giant comet Hale-Bopp was discovered in 1995, Nancy proclaimed that it didn't exist - it was a disinformation campaign to distract people from the coming doom of Planet X.
According to Nancy's website, "The inbound Planet X was sighted at the coordinates given by the Zetas in early 2001, imaged in infrared twice in January, 2002, tracked by CCD images in late 2002 to early 2003, and thereafter photographed by amateur astronomers around the world. That a middle aged woman with a high school degree, who does not even know which end of a telescope to look into, could pinpoint the RA and Dec of the brown dwarf, Planet X, is astonishing, and speaks to the validity of ZetaTalk." This is, of course, pure nonsense. A few photographs were produced purporting to show Planet X, but there was so little information provided that it was impossible to say what they really were. Nancy boasted of a 68 percent success rate for seeing Planet X during April of 2003, but only for “those educated, who had done their homework and followed the imaging session, noted our words as to what to look for, and oriented themselves in the sky.” Apparently other people didn't see anything. She further informs us that MJ12, the supposedly ultra-secret crashed UFO panel, has “committed suicide to prevent itself from being misused.” Ten years after its alleged "discovery," no reputable astronomer, amateur or professional, has ever confirmed any sighting of the supposed "Planet X."
According to the Zetas, Planet X was approaching earth in early 2003, to cause a “pole shift” and massive destruction on or about May 15. “The 12th Planet will be visible to the common man some 7 weeks prior to the shift, without the use of telescopes,” says Nancy, meaning that it should have become visible around the end of March. “Planet X will have a distinct red appearance, with a roiling tail full of moons, that are more concerned with the dance between them than any affect the solar wind might have upon them. Thus, they swirl, and look like a dragon approaching, not a straight line tail at all. Nevertheless, we anticipate NASA will explain the Planet X complex as any number of things, or rather their lackeys, who will natter the word on every Internet or media source that allows their nattering - asteroid bunch, passing comet, unusual comet, Mars closest pass in many eons, or whatever.” In other words, by May of 2003 “Planet X” would be huge and impossible to miss, but the government will attempt to convince you that you are actually seeing something else. Nancy noted on her website that in December of 2002, the popular late-night radio host Art Bell interviewed Sylvia Browne, “the well-known psychic and author. And she disclosed she is no longer able to see the future beyond the summer of 2003.” Bell also interviewed Ed Dames, who claims to have been a “remote viewer” employed by the CIA. Dames said that “he and his remote viewing team are no longer able to remote view the future beyond next summer.“ From this, Nancy deduces that there will be no future beyond the summer of 2003. The close approach of the mythical Planet X was supposed to cause a Pole Shift on the Earth, with massive accompanying destruction.Of course, it never happened.
During June of 2003, Nancy posted numerous accounts of supposedly bizarre phenomena such as unexplained booms, sunspots, a ring around the Moon, and the Sun “rising and setting in the wrong place.” These were labeled as “signs of the times,” and were attributed to the proximity of the dangerous Planet X. Nancy insisted that Earth’s rotational stopping and flipping was indeed still going to occur, but she refused to specify the hour or date. Her followers were carefully noting the times of sunrise and sunset, and the position of the Sun going down, to see if Earth’s expected careening might have already begun. But when these disasters failed to occur, most of her followers turned their attention elsewhere, to different weirdness.
The Global Competitiveness Forum is a meeting of the world's top Movers and Shakers, held each year in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Industry leaders and sheiks rub shoulders with political leaders and intellectual leaders (or at least that's how it's supposed to work - http://www.gcf.org.sa/ ). This year Bill Clinton and Tony Blair were there, as well as Andy Bird, the Chairman of Walt Disney International. And this year, these movers and shakers were treated to a panel (mostly) on UFOlogy, featuring Stanton Friedman, Jacques Vallee, Michio Kaku, and Nick Pope (http://www.gcf.org.sa/en/Program/Program/Welcoming--Networking--0800---900112112/ ) .
When I first saw this in an email sent around by the far-out Bohemian physicist Jack Sarfatti, I scratched my head and muttered "WTF?!!!". Here these (presumably) very hard-headed, results-oriented global leaders have paid a reported $4,000 each, not counting expenses, to attend this seminar in the Middle East, and what they get for their money are tired old claims of extraterrestrial contact that have been kicking around for decades. Even more astonishing, these talks are only about ten minutes each. I forwarded this to several of my skeptical buddies, and they also scratched their heads and muttered "WTF?!!!"
The panel was held on Sunday, January 23 (a workday in Saudi Arabia). The videos are now up on YouTube, saving both you and I $4,000 each, plus airfares and hotel, to learn about how Contact from Outer Space will boost our Global Competitiveness.
Zaghloul El Naggar is a Professor of Earth Sciences of the Supreme Council of Islamic Affairs (the guy apparently has a real PhD in Earth Sciences from the University of Wales). His talk was the most interesting from my perspective, as it was not something we ever hear in the West. He explained that one needs "divine guidance" if one wants to maximize competitiveness, and that the best source for Divine Guidance is of course the Glorious Koran, whose "divine purity" has never been sullied or compromised.
He discussed two Koranic verses that appear to describe the Big Bang: "And the Firmament we have built with might, and verily we are (currently) expanding it." No one asked him if the use of the term "firmament" implied that the stars were attached to a solid sphere, as was believed in Medieval Cosmology. (Indeed, the audience was astonishingly quiet throughout the panel, even when funnyman Stanton Friedman cracked jokes. Maybe nobody actually attended this session, since we can only see the speakers). He then described the Koranic process of "creation, destruction, and re-creation" of the universe, and tied it in to a "Big Crunch" that would occur when the expansion phase of the universe peters out, to be followed by another Bang. Too bad that Dr. El Naggar is a decade or two behind in his knowledge of Cosmology. According to all of the latest evidence, the expansion of the universe is accelerating, not slowing down, an acceleration hypothesized to be caused by "dark energy" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_energy ). So if he's going to claim that science supports the Koran, he at least ought to know what science currently says. But that is not his claim: rather, he says, "We are supporting science with the Koran, not vice-versa." The Koran, he explains, contains over 12,000 verses that have been proven to be absolutely scientifically precise. For example, the Koran tells how Allah formed the heavens and the earth out of "smoke." And "this smoke has just been photographed by satellites that have passed the zone of pollution and the zone of clouds surrounding the earth." It's worth paying $4,000 to get information like that.
Good old Stanton Friedman calls himself "The Flying Saucer Physicist", because he worked in physics about fifty years ago, and hasn't stopped talking about it since. Friedman's lecture covered largely the same subjects he has been covering since the 1970s, but held to under ten minutes, long-winded Stanton was clearly vexed. He proposed the use of nuclear fusion for rocket propulsion, without explaining the absurd fuel requirements to get anywhere even near the speed of light (see for example http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17737431 ). He suggests that the most likely place our visitors are coming from is the star system Zeta 1 and Zeta 2 Reticuli (not mentioned by name, but clearly described, and a regular part of Friedman's UFO lectures). This is interesting, because recent satellite data has completely invalidated the so-called "UFO Star Map" drawn up by Marjorie Fish from the map the late Betty Hill drew after her supposed UFO abduction (see my Psychic Vibrations column in Skeptical Inquirer, Sept/Oct 2009, for the full story). Since Friedman endlessly claims to be a scientist, he is obligated to abandon an earlier hypothesis when newer data contradicts it. This has absolutely happened, but not a peep from Friedman about abandoning the tired old Fish Map.
Nick Pope is a British author and journalist who used to handle UFO reports for the Ministry of Defense. He talked about the various ways that researchers are currently searching for extraterrestrial life: through SETI, through the search for exoplanets, and through UFO reports. He was the only one whose talk was actually on-subject, that is, how ET Contact can make you "competitive." He suggested that the discoverer of ET life would presumably own the naming rights, which could be extremely valuable if sold. He also suggested that the information contained in an ET signal might have great commercial value.
Michio Kaku is a theoretical physicist at the City University of New York and science TV personality, who wrote the appropriately-titled Physics of the Impossible, "A Scientific Exploration into the World of Phasers, Force Fields, Teleportation, and Time Travel." Kaku urged his listeners to "open their mind" to the prospect that some day we will make contact with ETI. In fact, he predicted that by mid-century we "might" make such contact, a bold prediction that is in no danger of being falsified.
Kaku described three types of advanced civilizations: a Type I civilization controls the resources of an entire planet, which includes controlling earthquakes, and the weather. A Type II controls the resources of a solar system, which includes moving planets around at will. Type III controls the resources of an entire galaxy. (These classifications were actually created by the Russian astronomer Nikolai Kardashev, who was not credited). Kaku did not explain how that could be possible, given that it takes light approximately 100,000 years to cross an average-sized galaxy, meaning that orders from Galactic HQ will be already tens of thousands of years old before they even arrive at the frontiers. But Kaku has never taken speed-of-light limitations very seriously. He even speculated that there might be a Type IV civilization, harnessing the energy of the entire universe! He predicted that our own civilization would become a Type I civilization in about 100 years, meaning that we would become like gods in controlling our planet. I pity whoever has to fill out the Environmental Impact Report for that transition.
Longtime UFO investigator and theorist Jacques Vallee repeated his usual claim that UFO reports are a 'challenge to science,' and are "potentially leading to technology breakthroughs." The problem is, we have no actual data about UFOs, just anecdotes, and the reason that the Royal Society in London adopted the motto "nullius in verba" ("on the word of no man," i.e. words alone count for nothing), is that there were plenty of guys like Vallee back in the 17th century presenting similar "evidence" without tangible proof. Of course, in those days claims were usually about alchemy, religious miracles, or witchcraft. In fact, a serious effort was set forth in the 1660s to prove the reality of witchcraft on purely empirical, not religious, grounds, by appealing to credible eyewitness testimony, exactly as UFOlogists do today. See Chapter 7 of my book UFO Sightings. The Royal Society's 17th Century decision to ignore anecdotes is at the very cornerstone of the modern scientific method. It is what separates "science" from "pseudo".
Vallee served up not the usual long-debunked UFO cases, but some golden oldies that nobody is talking about any more, from the files of France's UFO investigations, supposedly so well-witnessed as to leave little or no room for doubt. One was an aircraft sighting near Dijon, France on March 7, 1977 around 20.30. (Thanks to Jim Oberg for helping with this one). Actually, there were several UFO sightings in France and the U.K. around that time, suggesting that it was likely a meteor high overhead. Unfortunately, so little information has been published about this case that it is impossible to say anything about it with much confidence.
Another sighting was from Orleans in 1956. Perhaps Vallee was relying on the very obscurity of these cases to protect them from refutation.
In honor of the approaching Mayan Calendar Doomsday in 2012, I am presenting an occasional series of "Doomsdays of Yesteryear," to show how often the world has ended in the past, entirely without effect.
The former NASA engineer and self-taught Biblical scholar Edgar C. Whisenant attracted many followers in the Evangelical Christian community with his confident prediction that the Rapture would occur in 1988, probably to coincide with Rosh Hashana. Over four million copies were sold, and many others distributed for free. He confidently stated, "Only if the Bible is in error am I wrong," and we know that isn't possible. He also predicted that a nuclear war would break out between the US and the USSR on October 4, and the Final Judgment occurring in November, 1995. When the world failed to end in 1988, he issued more rapture predictions for 1989, 1993, and 1994, but these did not attract as much attention.
With so many people getting worked up over Doomsday predictions for 2012, I think it's instructive to look at some previous End-of-The-World hysterias. That should help put such claims into perspective.
In 1974, the book The Jupiter Effect by John Gribbin, PhD and Stephen Plagemann was published. It became a huge best-seller. Its argument was simple: in March of 1982 there will be an "alignment" when seven planets (six if we correctly ignore Pluto) will be lined up on the same side of the Sun. And "lined up" is used in the rough sense: they're within an arc of 95 degrees, or in other words, all within one quadrant, more or less. Somehow this was going to affect the Sun, which would then affect the Earth by the solar wind, and trigger a catastrophic earthquake along the San Andreas Fault near Los Angeles. I don't know why the solar wind wanted to single out Los Angeles and not Tokyo or Lisbon, but it clearly had sinful California in its sights, where the book sales to easily-frightened flakes, fruits, and nuts could be maximized. There were other catastrophes that would occur as well. Probably about as many people were then frightened about 1982 as are now frightened about 2012.
And of course, 1982 came and went without any of the predicted catastrophes occurring. In February of 1982, these same two authors published The Jupiter Effect Reconsidered. They didn't even wait for March to come and go before they started writing their apologia. They claimed that, even though the alignment didn't cause any major earthquakes in 1982, it was responsible for triggering the giant eruption of Mt. St. Helens in 1980 (two years before the "alignment" had occurred). "Psychics" do this all the time, re-interpreting their failed predictions as successes. If a "psychic" predicts A, which doesn't occur, but B does, the prediction will be re-interpreted to have meant B.
Surprisingly, neither Gribbin nor Plagemann has ever been tarred-and-feathered for their journalistic malfeasance. And what was Isaac Asimov thinking when he agreed to write the Foreward to this book, and sound almost like he agrees with them? Probably the same thing as the authors: big Dollar Signs.
Two postings ago I wrote about Peter Gersten's planned "Leap of Faith" from Bell's Rock in Sedona, Arizona at the precise moment of the December solstice in 2012. He thinks that some "trans-dimensional event" will occur, sucking him into it, where he will probably meet the late members of the Heavens Gate cult, still wearing their sneakers, as well as Jimmy Hoffa and Judge Crater. I said there was no unusual "alignment" occurring at that time. Gersten disagreed, and pointed me to some information about a supposed alignment of the Sun with the Galactic Equator, at the moment of the solstice. I then wrote another posting, pointing out that this supposed alignment actually took place in 1998, and in any case is "signifying nothing." Gersten disagreed again, and pointed me to the Really Good stuff: Thomas Razetto's claims about the supposed alignment of the solstice point with the Great Rift of the Milky Way, also (allegedly) known as the Maya Birth Canal. This, says Razetto, constitutes "The Sacred Triple Rebirth of the Sun."
The "Great Rift" or "Dark Rift" of the Milky Way is simply big old cloud of dust and gas along the Galactic plane that obscures the stars behind it. Many galaxies have this, not just ours. Since we have seen in the last posting that the Sun is not aligned with the Galactic Equator at the time of the 2012 winter solstice (although it would make no difference even if it were), if you look around hard enough, you'll find something that the Sun is aligned with. In this case, it's the Milky Way's Great Rift. Throw a few planets into the mix, and you can fashion up a "Sacred Tree." Razetto apparently doesn't care that Pluto has now been (quite properly) downgraded to the rank of the minor planets. Is he going to include Ceres, Vesta, Sedna, and Chiron in his "alignment" as well?
I think any rational person can see that this "Sacred Triple Rebirth" of the Sun and the "Sacred Tree" is a load of horse manure, especially when it comes from a website calling itself "infinitely mystical." I could make up a similar "cosmic alignment" story for practically any equinox or solstice, throw in a few planets, and invent some high-sounding reason why it signals the beginning of a Cosmic New Age. Most people don't realize that the inner planets Mercury and Venus spend a lot of time (from the earth's perspective) hanging out in the vicinity of the Sun, and since Mars is on the opposite side of the Sun from us at that time, it appears to move more slowly than at other times, and thus, yes, also seems to loiter for a long time in the vicinity of the Sun. To find any significance whatsoever to having Mercury, Venus, and Mars in the vicinity of the Sun at some random time requires one to be ignorant of planetary orbits. But forget all these facts: this is astrology, plain and simple, and astrology is ancient superstition, nothing more. It doesn't matter where this planet is, or that planet. It's all humbug.
Since Gersten finds Razetto's claims to be convincing, so convincing that he is willing to risk almost certain death because of it, there is nothing more for the rational person to say. When Faith clashes with Reason, Faith wins out nearly every time. I can only wish him well, and hope that he acquires at least a little bit of common sense on this subject in the next 675 days (the "countdown" is on his website) and not go through with his mad plan.
And I've said enough about the supposed "Cosmic Alignments" of 2012. This posting and the one before it lay out what the case is supposed to be for the 2012 solstice to be something cosmically special. As you can see, there is absolutely nothing unusual or special occurring at that time. It's just the same old "when the Moon is in the Seventh House, and Jupiter aligns with Mars." I suggest that anyone who has gotten even a little worried by all the Doomsday talk about 2012 read these postings carefully. If you realize that you've gotten all worked up over a "Sacred Tree" superimposed over the "Maya Birth Canal," you're going to feel rather silly about it. Or at least I would.
We keep hearing from "New Age" folks and many others about an major "cosmic alignment" that is supposed to occur on the date of the Winter Solstice in 2012, on December 21. In the previous post, I described how UFO lawyer and New Age guy Peter Gersten plans to take a "leap of faith" off huge Bell Rock at precisely 4:11 AM (Mountain Time), the time of the solstice, which he expects will open up a "cosmic portal" and take him to some other plane of existence, hopefully a better one than this.
I said "from an astronomical standpoint, there is nothing special or even a little bit unusual going on in December of 2012. Nada." Gersten posted a comment disagreeing with that statement, containing a link to one of his web pages, which in turn has a link to "What is the Galactic Alignment" by John Major Jenkins. And he has a point. There is an alignment - however, it has no significance, and it actually occurred in 1998.
To understand what this is about, you will need to visualize the celestial equator, the ecliptic, and the plane of our Milky Way galaxy. It's hard to visualize this, because hardly anyone studies spherical geometry any more (navigators of old knew it solidly). Let's use an earth globe to represent the "celestial sphere," which of course isn't a real object, but it looks like a sphere, and it can be modeled as one.
First visualize the equator. The equator makes a "great circle" around the earth, meaning that its center is the center of the sphere. (Lines of longitude are Great Circles, but parallels of latitude are not.) Then visualize the ecliptic, which is inclined to the equator at an angle of 23.5 degrees. This is the plane of the earth's orbit projected into the sky, and it also a Great Circle. Imagine it stretching on the globe from the Tropic of Cancer in Morocco to the Tropic of Capricorn in Australia. But there is yet a third Great Circle we need to be concerned with: the plane of the Milky Way, which is inclined about 60 degrees to the ecliptic.
The Sun at the "Alignment Time" in 2012: close, but no cigar
Remember that all Great Circles intersect at two points, so it's not a question of if they cross, but where. And the Grand Cosmic Alignment of 2012 is illustrated by the above illustration I made using Skychart (Cartes du Ciel, a free Open Source program that I highly recommend). It shows the Sun at the time of the December Solstice on Dec. 21, 2012 at 11:11:11 UT. The ecliptic is the line that's level, on which the Sun appears to be moving from right to left. The inclined line shows the plane of the Milky Way. There is your alignment.
"But wait," you say, "they're not really aligned." True enough. The actual "alignment," such as it is, occurred in 1998, when the center of the sun aligned as closely as possible with the plane of the galaxy at the time of the solstice. In fact, since the Sun has an apparent diameter of a half-degree, as seen from Earth, "alignments" such as these began in 1980, and will continue until 2016.
John Major Jenkins' illustration of "alignments" in 1998 and 2012
So there you have your "Grand Alignment," which actually occurred in 1998 and was meaningless even then. Why this supposedly has any connection with the 2012 solstice is anyone's guess.
The Sun "Aligns" (?) with the center of the Galaxy ("X") on Dec. 21, 2012
As for the talk about the Sun "aligning" with the center of the galaxy, well, it never happens. The galaxy's center does not lie on the ecliptic, so the sun never reaches it, although each December Solstice the Sun passes only about six and a half degrees from it. Wow! In fact, as you can see the Sun actually passes closer to the galaxy's center several days before the solstice, as it appears to move eastward along the ecliptic. But is that dramatic? Naah?
So if I were Peter Gersten, I'd wait for a much better "alignment" than this before leaping off a cliff.
Lawyer Peter Gersten has been a well-known figure in UFOlogy at least since the 1970s. He filed suit against the CIA in U.S. District Court in 1977 for release of documents concerning UFOs. This resulted in over 900 pages of documents being released, although there was little in them that wasn't already known. There were 57 pages that were held back due to "national security" concerns. UFOlogists made a big stink about this, claiming it's proof of a government cover-up. However, the files were held back because they might allow other nations to gain information on U.S. capabilities in electronic and signals intelligence. For example, there was one document where the CIA listened in on a Cuban pilot discussing a UFO sighting. The problem wasn't the UFO sighting, it was that we didn't want the Cubans to know we'd been able to hear their pilots' conversations.
Now retired to Sedona, Arizona, a center of a supposed 'New Age energy vortex', Gersten says that he plans to take a "leap of faith" from Bell Rock, a well-known vortexy place in Sedona, at the moment of the solstice: 11:11 UT on Dec, 21, 2012. This will be 4:11 AM in Arizona, and according to a reference I checked (http://www.timeanddate.com/calendar/seasons.html target=BLANK ), is within 1 minute of the time of the actual solstice.
Gersten writes, "On the Winter Solstice of 2012 at exactly 11:11 UT a cosmic portal will open in Sedona Arizona and a leap of faith - from the top of Bell Rock - will propel me through its opening.... My two principal beliefs are: 1) that our reality is an intelligently designed cosmic holographic program and 2) that on the Winter Solstice of 2012 at exactly 11:11 UT – a Trans-Dimensional Event (T-DE) will occur... an article on my web site discussing the Mayan calendar end-date states that: There is no reason not to take a leap of faith imagining what may be in store (10). So by now you must have an idea of what I plan to do on the Winter Solstice of 2012 at exactly 11:11 while on the top of Bell Rock – a place only a few miles from my home.... Most of you will think that I am delusional and that my insane act will certainly result in my death. Death is inevitable - at least nowadays - and 100 years from now it won't matter whether I died in 2012 or 2013 or even 2020. But I believe that some type of cosmic portal will be opening at that time and place and that an opportunity will present itself. I fully expect that it will either lead to the next level of this cosmic program; freedom from an imprisoning time-loop; a magical Martian-like bubble; or something equally as exotic.In March 2012 I will reach 70 years of age and nine months later we arrive at the cosmic coordinate. I think it will then be time for me to move on - in one form or another. I'd like to see what else our Cosmic Computer has to offer." (http://www.pagenews.info/commentary/wintersolstice2012.php )
When I first read about this, I could not believe that it was true. Perhaps somebody with a grudge against Gersten made this up? Yet in the YouTube video above, we see and hear Gersten telling, in his own words, about his plan to (hopefully) leap into the portal that he believes should be opening up. He explains that, even if he dies in this leap, it is probably good Karma to die at such at the time of such special cosmic energy.
Bell Rock, Sedona, AZ
What Gersten and so many others do not seem to realize is that from an astronomical standpoint, there is nothing special or even a little bit unusual going on in December of 2012. Nada. There will be a Transit of Venus across the Sun on the afternoon of June 5, 2012 (the morning of June 6 in Asia and Australia), which is a really special and rare celestial alignment (the next one won't occur until 2117), but clearly that is not what the hoopla is about. No "alignments" are going to happen around the 2012 winter solstice that do not also happen every other December. Supposed "Bible Codes" and "ancient calendars" simply don't cut it. No matter how many times nonsense is repeated, it still remains nonsense. Echo chambers do not contribute to truth.
I've briefly met Gersten a few times, and he is a pleasant fellow. I hope he is not serious about this, and finds reason to change his mind. If he's in good health at age 70, he can easily live at least another ten or twenty more years. I hope he doesn't give up the rest of his life because of babblings about "ancient calendars" and "trans-dimensional effects."
[For updates on this story, see the posting The Apocalypse Made Easy, November 17, 2012.
Gersten did not jump. He is still alive in 2013. ]
